The dilemma of two nations in one

The dilemma of two nations in one

http://www.eastandard.net/news/?id=1143981973&cid=15

Published on February 17, 2008, 12:00 am
By Wilson Ugangu
Kofi Annan’s intervention has undoubtedly moved this country from the knife’s edge. The streets are calmer.
Amid this uneasy quiet, one would ask: What is the current state of the nation?
Anxiety remains. Fear for tomorrow abounds and the political future of the country is uncertain.
Hundreds of thousands have been evicted from their homes while hundreds more have lost their lives.
It is, therefore, not a surprise that most have pegged their hopes for the future on the success of the Annan-led mediation efforts.
But how should we define ourselves at the moment? Can we still claim to be one nation or are we two or many nations in one? Does it make sense to conclude that Mr Raila Odinga and Mr Mwai Kibaki represent two nations that unfortunately are part of a larger nation state called Kenya? Is it possible for the mediation efforts to reconcile the political, ethnic and economic motivations that underlie these two nations?
For many observers, the current impasse has not only undermined the very foundations of this country, but also laid bare the cauldron of contradictions, frustrations and injustices.
Given this reality, it is foolhardy to imagine that a simple quick fix solution will work. It also does not make sense for President Kibaki to imagine that he will gain the legitimacy required to govern the country without committing to the mechanisms that can address the issues in their entirety.
To understand the current situation, one also needs to look back at the presidential campaigns that were mounted by both Kibaki and Raila in the run up to the poll.
While the Kibaki campaign seemed to lack a central defining issue, the Raila campaign picked momentum from the early stages and was driven by the push for change.
For a majority of people in the Rift Valley, Western, North Eastern, Nyanza and Coast provinces, the Raila message approximated their expectations of a next government. It suggested a movement from their perceived marginal status to more active engagement in the state.
Kibaki-Raila campaigns
This explains the massive support that Raila received from these regions.
The Kazi Iendelee message on the other hand seemed to emphasise a status quo and business as usual stance. It implied little or no innovation in how a new Kibaki government would break from the corruption and ineptitude of the past.
The majimbo or devolutionist approach advocated by the Raila campaign seemed to point to a more equitable way of sharing the national cake, as well as ceding some level of decision making to people at the grassroots.
This obviously meant a big break from the culture of big central government. It also meant that ordinary people would play a key role in checking corruption while ensuring more accountability in public institutions.
For the regional ethnic blocks which supported Raila, expectations were thus staked in the chance for economic change, a presence in government and decision making at national level as well as a political voice not only in the future of the nation but also their respective ethnic blocks.
The Kibaki support base, in contrast, was not exactly motivated by what Kibaki represented or any form of overt ethno-nationalist pull, but more by the fear of the unknown.
This, however, changed in the wake of the first cases of post-election violence, especially in the Rift Valley Province. Support for Kibaki, despite his perceived weaknesses as a leader, was henceforth justified on the basis of tribe. The bloody killings in Naivasha and Nakuru towns can be seen in the same light.
There were threats on some civil society leaders, such as Mr Maina Kiai and Ms Muthoni Wanyeki, who criticised the Government in the wake of the electoral debacle. These were perceived as betrayers.
These forces unfortunately are still very alive and now define how we relate to each other and perceive our political leaders.
The Annan mediation talks will only succeed to the extent that sustainable solutions to these long-standing issues are found.
If, for instance, sharing power becomes the solution to the present stalemate, deliberate efforts will need to be made to reassure the Kibaki group of their stake in the nation.
Efforts will also have to be made to assure the Raila camp that the Government cloth will be wide enough to cover them and that the national cake will henceforth be shared through just and fair means.
As it is, we remain two nations in one.