Kenya: International mediation in the political crisis
March 02, 2008 10:29 AM
As Kenyans celebrate the power-sharing deal between President Kibaki and Prime Minister-designate Raila Odinga, they also thank the international mediators who worked tirelessly to end the post-election crisis. Former UN secretary general Kofi Annan is the current hero and some Kenyans show it by shouting, “Kofi Annan for President!”
Kenya’s post-election crisis sent shock-waves worldwide, prompting international
action to avert a full blown civil war when the ethnic-related skirmishes began. Stories of atrocities and pictures of killings spread on various media, sending fears of 'another Rwanda’. President Kibaki had done what is routine in sub-Saharan Africa: “rigging the presidential election results to retain power”. Raila Odinga, the much-awaited winner, had lost. International election observers’ report cited severe irregularities in Kibaki’s strongholds, though Kibaki's supporters also claimed that there were rigging cases in Odinga’s strongholds.
President Kibaki and his hardliners then directed Odinga to challenge the results in a court of law. Odinga insisted that Kenya’s Judiciary was not independent enough to give a fair verdict without interference from the Executive. Using his past experience of broken promises by Kibaki on signed deals, he insisted on foreign intervention.
Initial attempts to mediate between Kibaki and Odinga were made by Archbishop Tutu of South Africa, President Museveni of Uganda, Ms. Jendayi Frazer (US Assistant Secretary, Bureau of African Affairs), President Kufuor of Ghana and other African leaders who sent messages calling for peace. The USA retracted its message of congratulations to Kibaki after escalating protests, killings, humanitarian crisis and proof of electoral irregularities.
Eminent African Personalities
After a lot of foot-dragging from the Kenya government, the international community namely, Britain, United States of America (USA), United Nations (UN) and European Union (EU), supported African Union’s (AU) recommendation to send former UN secretary-general Kofi Annan, as chief mediator in the dispute. Kofi Annan formed a working team of “Eminent African Personalities” consisting of former President Benjamin Mkapa of Tanzania and Mrs. Graça Machel (former President Mandela’s wife). Both Kibaki and Odinga had four members of parliament (MPs) each to represent them at the negotiations.
Annan, a seasoned diplomat, was determined to succeed in the talks and on January 24, 2008, he made the first huge step by meeting Raila and Kibaki. Some sources claimed that the government flexed its muscles and wanted Kibaki to sit between Raila and Annan, to chair the talks. The Opposition was angry and threatened to walk out. It was reported that when Annan entered the mediation room, he pulled Kibaki aside and after a few seconds, it was clear that he was the boss. Later that day, he got Kibaki and Raila to shake hands in public, indicating that the negotiations were on track.
The most controversial demand by the Orange Democratic Party (ODM) of Odinga was its proposal to share power equally, since it had more MPs and the Speaker’s position in Parliament. Kibaki’s Party of National Unity (PNU) was determined to derail the talks by refusing to share any bit of power: they resorted to propaganda. By invoking the colonial history, PNU leaders issued statements that Kenya was a sovereign state and Kenyans were not going to be dictated by foreigners who had once colonized them. This charged their supporters who sent messages everywhere, claiming that they could solve their problems locally without foreigners.
AU
President Kufuor was mandated as then chairman of AU to initiate mediation, but after a few days in Nairobi, he could only get Kibaki and Raila to “work together”. In an interesting analysis on the role of AU, Alistair Thomson wrote: “The African Union's failure to broker a deal in Kenya's bloody political crisis has exposed a lack of muscle and dented its ambition to become a one-stop shop for the international community's dealings with the continent.”
It was argued elsewhere that since African leaders saw themselves as equals, they would not take their colleagues seriously in such circumstances. Others also argued that Museveni for instance, had no ‘political moral’ to intervene in Kenya’s crisis, because he had also changed Uganda’s Constitution to secure another term of office. The AU did not come out strongly to condemn Kibaki for his alleged rigging and even invited him as President, to the 10th AU Summit in Addis Ababa held January 25 to February 2, 2008.
It was still felt that Africans needed to resolve their issues though African channels. Britain, EU and USA therefore supported Kofi Annan who was recommended by the AU. The AU has not been successful in resolving ongoing crises such as those in Darfur (Sudan), Somalia and Zimbabwe. Alistair adds: “There's a tendency outside of Africa to put too high expectations on the African Union, because it's only a few years old still. It has great aspirations for itself, partly imposed from the outside, but its resources are still limited.”Kenya’s case will act as a point of reference for similar cases in the future.
EU
The EU Council gave a summary of its deliberations on Kenya’s crisis on January 28, 2008. It condemned the post-election violence, the ban on live media broadcast and free assembly, and the use of excessive force on peaceful demonstrators. It also called for thorough investigations into the alleged rigged elections. Other key points at the meeting were:
Building on the commendable efforts of President Kufuor, President of the African Union (AU), the Council welcomes and lends its full support to the ongoing efforts of the Panel of Eminent African Personalities, led by Mr Kofi Annan.
The Council continues to urge all parties to live up to their responsibilities by engaging constructively and fully in this process, working jointly through dialogue on all issues, including electoral and constitutional reform, and to agree a sustainable and consensual political solution to the crisis. The Council believes such a solution should reflect the clear democratic will of the Kenyan people and enable Kenya's politicians to overcome their divisions.
Until a legitimate solution is agreed, the EU and its Member States cannot conduct business as usual with Kenya. Failure to find a sustainable and consensual political solution would affect donors' engagement with Kenya and EU Kenya relations.
It is the last point that hinted targeted sanctions in case of continued “businesss as usual”— refusal to reach a political solution. Kofi Annan suspended the mediation talks on February 26, 2008, when Kibaki’s team changed its earlier position, of accepting power-sharing. Stephanie McCrummen of the Washinton Post wrote:
“The talks have stalled over the details of a prime ministerial position for Odinga that would pry away presidential powers and address a central frustration in Kenyan society: that Kibaki has used his almost absolute powers as president to further entrench his Kikuyu ethnic group, which has dominated Kenyan politics for decades. After seeming to agree in principle to such an arrangement, Kibaki's team backed away from it Monday.”
On February 27, 2008, the EU Commissioner for Development and Humanitarian Aid, Louis Michel, issued a statement of concern on the suspended talks: "The country clearly stands at the crossroads. The people of Kenya crave for a political solution now in order to bring to an end the ongoing crisis and the unacceptable violence that have torn the country apart. I am strongly concerned that the Kenyan leaders still have not delivered on their commitment to reaching agreement on the real sharing of power and reforms needed to effectively govern Kenya. I therefore urge the Kenyan leaders to take the full measure of their responsibilities before their nation and demonstrate the leadership needed to live up to the situation and get to an agreement. They cannot falter. There is no alternative to a political solution of this kind. I want to recall that the EU is ready to assist and help all those pushing for a solution but that individuals, who obstruct the National Dialogue process or who encourage violence will have to face the consequences. The European Union is determined to take all appropriate measures and all options are being considered."
USA
The US Secretary of State Dr. Condoleezza Rice came to Nairobi with a statement from President Bush, stating clearly that a political solution which reflected the wishes of majority Kenyans was the best. She also emphasized that power-sharing had to be meaningful. After meeting Kofi Annan in Nairobi on February 18, 2008, she remarked: “I just want to strongly affirm that in my discussions with the current Secretary General, Ban Ki-moon before I left Washington and in the discussions we’ve had with the AU Chairman Kikwete in Tanzania, and with my European colleagues, this is indeed a mission that is fully supported by the entire international community.”
Those in the know claimed that a solution had to be reached before President Bush ended his tour of five African countries from February 15-21. Ms. Rice also met with Kibaki and Odinga, emphasizing that it would not be business as usual, urging them to get a political solution to the impasse. She then met members of the civil society and business people who also wished for a political solution.
A day after her departure, some officials of the Kenya government issued a statement claiming that the US and other foreigners could not dictate a solution to the impasse, Ms. Rice issued another statement correcting them: “The crescendo of peaceful voices continues to mount from a broad range of civil society organizations, churches, and directly from the Kenyan people on the need for a political solution. I join my voice to that of the Kenyan people.”
When the talks became suspended, the US got equally alarmed and Dr. Rice issued yet another statement on February 26, concluding that: “I want to emphasize that the future of our relationship with both sides and their legitimacy hinges on their cooperation to achieve this political solution. In that regard, we are exploring a wide range of possible actions. We will draw our own conclusions about who is responsible for lack of progress and take necessary steps. We will also exert leadership with the United Nations, the African Union, the European Union, and others to ensure that the political solution the Kenyan people deserve is achieved.”
Power-sharing accord
After the stalled talks, Kofi Annan changed tact and engaged Kibaki and Odinga directly without their party representatives. President Jakaya Kikwete of Tanzania, who is the current chairman of AU, arrived in Nairobi on February 26, to add force. As the AU chairman, he represented the voices of Britain, EU and USA. He also had to explain to Kibaki that his position as President was secure. Tanzania has had a premier for many years, so he was useful in explaining how things worked. The Nation newspaper reported: “It is understood that President Kibaki was initially apprehensive about the creation of the job that would necessitate an amendment to the Constitution, and thereby erode the executive powers he wields under Section 23.”
Kenyan Internet chat forums speculated that Kikwete had brought ‘a letter’ from President Bush, which might have repeated the US position for a political solution. It’s possible that the letter emphasized a call for travel ban on individuals who were frustrating the mediation process. There were other claims that the US marine and AU troops would be sent within 48 hours to intervene in case the talks collapsed. Whatever it was, Kenyans jubilated when Kibaki and Odinga signed a power-sharing deal on February 28, 2008, allowing for a Prime Minister’s position.
The US has already pledged $25 million to help in rebuilding destroyed property. Meanwhile, Switzerland has walked the talk by denying a Kenyan Cabinet minister a travel visa, for frustrating the mediation. The Standard newspaper reported that: “A statement from the Swiss Embassy consular, Mr. Arthur Mattli, on February 19, said his country would take measures against leaders seen to have held back the talks. Also included were those seen to subvert democracy or promote violence.”
Through diplomatic talks and pressure (outright threats), the international community has helped Kenyans to restore order and bring hope for true democracy.
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