Will the real Kibaki please stand up!

COMMENTARY
Will the real Kibaki please stand up! Story by MUTAHI NGUNYI Last Word on Sunday Publication Date: 6/22/2008
The Kriegler Commission should be disbanded. It is a bad idea and a threat to national security. What are my reasons? If the commission points to a genuine Kibaki win, there will be no basis for power sharing.
At this point, President Kibaki could fire ODM, including Prime Minister Raila Odinga, from the Cabinet. And, by the way, ODM and the PM are not protected by the Peace Accord, we just imagine so. If they got fired, there would be no election, and no fall back.
But would President Kibaki do this? Definitely yes! Especially if a reputable judge like Kriegler gives him the motive. All he would look for is opportunity.
Grave implications
Let us flip the situation now. Should the commission suggest that Raila Odinga won the presidency, the implications would be grave. For starters, President Kibaki would be in power illegally. In fact, there would be no constitutional basis for him to continue occupying that office. He would have to quit!
But given his track record, the president will not. And this will open battle fields we cannot handle. In sum, the Kriegler commission is like a stick poking at a healing wound. It is like a lonely tyre burning on some Eldoret road out there! Its results cannot be good; they will attract more hate than healing. My take: pay the good judge his dues and send him home!
Typical African chief
But am I suggesting that the grand coalition will work? That we do not need the Krieglers, and people like the American Ambassador to keep it in check? The answer is a resounding yes! And my reason comes in the form of a hypothesis about President Kibaki. Some people believe that he is a good man taken advantage of by hardliners.
After the election crisis, I began to doubt that. And the question in my mind was: do we even know this man? Could he be a typical African chief; strong-willed, too ‘‘clever,’’ wife-basher, and power-hungry? I was blank.
But, as the crisis unfolded, things became clear. The man is not a laid-back, disinterested, politician. He is a skilful manipulator who toyed with us, the way a boy would play with a yo-yo. Let us replay some scenes for evidence.
Skilful manipulator
Do you recall February 28? Around this period, the temperatures were red hot and the old man had refused to bulge. Then that morning he called the PNU hardliners and told them he was feeling weak and he wanted to give in.
They allowed him. And, with a sigh of relief, he sheepishly rushed to mediator Kofi Annan and announced: “we have a deal.” That is the Kibaki we know. Now we need to look at the real Kibaki – the one in my hypothesis.
Strongheaded
For starters, he is a strong-headed loner who cannot be influenced easily. He is often unmoved, unconvinced and dismissive. In fact, he was the only hardliner in PNU during the crisis. If this is true, therefore, he did not consult with anyone on the morning of February 28. He knew he had pushed us to the edge and it was time for his next move; to give in.
At this point, he shifted from the game of suspense to surprise. And this is how, from the blues, he walked to Kofi Annan on that day and announced: “We have a deal!” I guess Mr Annan was shocked.
President’s surprises
But the President’s surprises did not end here. On the day Parliament was making the peace amendments, he ‘‘unexpectedly’’ appeared. On this occasion, the man spoke like a statesman. I could see tears swelling in the eyes of Hon Charity Ngilu and others from the televised edition.
We were all moved. And, at that point, it did not matter what the Accord said, the goodwill and the spirit of the moment was more important. This was true until he decided to play the ‘‘yo-yo’’ game on Raila regarding cabinet positions.
In fact, we should not be too harsh on Prime Minister Raila Odinga regarding the half-baked ‘‘Sagana Deal.’’ We only pray that he does not suffer from political constipation. But even if he does, the man had no choice but to ‘‘eat’’ the deal. The situation had been manipulated in such a way that he would have looked bad if he had rejected it.
And now to my ‘‘wacky’’ hypothesis about President Kibaki. We do not know this man and what he is capable of. What would stop him from running in 2012 for instance? After all, Jomo Kenyatta did 15 years, and Daniel arap Moi 24. Why should he do 10 years only?
We should make no mistake regarding President Kibaki. Like all African leaders, he loves power. And, while in power, Kibaki gets what Kibaki wants. This means that he will get 2012 and PM Odinga is his ‘‘ticket’’ to the slot.
But he does not have to behave like Yoweri Museveni who bullied parliament into extending his stay or Robert Mugabe who has become an outright thug. All he needs to do is reluctantly accept the idea of a parliamentary system, with an un-elected ceremonial president.
The two principals can then negotiate a secret ‘‘power deal’’ and hand over the ceremonial presidency to Kibaki in 2012. May be they even discussed the probability in Sagana.
Peace deal
In sum, therefore, if the peace deal was cut to benefit President Kibaki like this, then the coalition will hold. If there is no ‘‘power’’ benefit for him, then he will collapse the coalition government. And he could use the constitutional review process to do so. History will have repeated itself!
Mutahi Ngunyi is a political scientist with The Consulting House, a policy and security think-tank for the Great Lakes Region and West Africa.

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